HARP: Hadeel Hamoud, Alexis Bianco, Ryan Lee, Pierce Hollier
The primary goal in this project is to understand the correlation between climate change indicators and the refugee flow from at-risk countries. In order to make the analysis more manageable, we focused on the climate change and refugee data of the Middle East region.
Our dataset comes from the World Bank Development Indicators Databank, which can be accessed with the link: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#
----------------------------------------VARIABLES UTILIZED----------------------------------------
Time: year of data records.
Country Name: the name of each country in the region of interest.
arable_land: percent of land in each country that is arable. Further represented by the dataframe climate_arable.
land_cereal: hectares of land under cereal production in each country. Further represented by the dataframe climate_cereal.
co2_tons: CO2 emissions in metric tons per capita in each country. Further represented by the dataframe climate_co2.
nitrous_tons: Nitrous oxide emissions in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent per country. Further represeted by the datafhrame climate_nitrous.
nitrous_kt_per_capita: Nitrous oxide emissions in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent per capita per country.
methane_tons: Methane emissions in energy sector in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent per country. Further represented by the dataframe climate_methane.
methane_kt_per_capita: Methane emissions in energy sector in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent per capita per country.
refugee: number of refugees recorded in each country for each year. Further represented by the dataframe climate_refugee.
pop: overall population of each country for each year.
prop_refugee: proportion of refugees (refugee / population) calculated each year for each country.
refugee_per_100000: number of refugees per 10,000 residents.
predicted_refugee: propotion of a country's population that is expected to be refugees based on the linear model climate_model.
----------------------------------------DATAFRAMES----------------------------------------
climate: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee.
climate_data: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the countries Afghanistan / Iran, Islamic Rep. / Iraq / Pakistan / Syria.
climate_filtered: a version of climate_data with the rows containing N/A values filtered out.
climate_me: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the countries Afghanistan / Iran, Islamic Rep. / Iraq / Pakistan.
climate_sahel: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the countries Mauritania / Burkina Faso / Mali / Niger / Senegal.
climate_filtered_BF / climate_filtered_sahel: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Burkina Faso.
climate_filtered_niger: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Niger.
----------------------------------------PREDICTED VALUE DATAFRAMES----------------------------------------
predicted_afghan: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Afghanistan.
predicted_iran: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Iran, Islamic Rep.
predicted_iraq: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Iraq.
predicted_pak: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, and prop_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Pakistan.
predicted_values: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, prop_refugee, and predicted_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the countries Afghanistan / Iran, Islamic Rep. / Iraq / Pakistan.
predicted_values_BF: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, prop_refugee, and predicted_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Burkina Faso.
predicted_values_niger: a condensed dataframe containing the variables Time, Country Name, arable_land, land_cereal, co2_tons, nitrous_tons, nitrous_kt_per_capita, methane_tons, methane_kt_per_capita, refugee, pop, prop_refugee, and predicted_refugee. Filtered to only inlcude the country Niger.
----------------------------------------LINEAR MODELS----------------------------------------
climate_model: a linear model with a logarithmic transformation used to estimate predicted refugee proportion of population in a particular country based off cereal land, CO2 emissions, nitrous emissions, and methane emissions. Only includes major effects.
climate_model_aug: augmented version of climate_model.
climate_interac: a linear model with a logarithmic transformation used to estimate predicted refugee proportion of population in a particular country based off of cereal land, CO2 emissions, nitrous emissions, and methane emissions. Includes major effects and greenhouse gas interactions.
climate_int_aug: augmented version of climate_interac.