This code pulls 538's ELO rankings and walks the tree of possible picks to give you the best chance of finishing a Fantasy Football Survivor league.
In case you're not Elixir-y, here's some install instructions, assuming you're using ASDF as your language version manager:
asdf plugin add elixir
asdf plugin add erlang
asdf install elixir 13.3.3
asdf install erlang 24.3
mix deps.get
To open Elixir's REPL...
iex -S mix
To run the projections from the REPL:
Survivor.project(threshold: 0.68)
Note that that's the verb "project" as in "project the future" as opposed to the noun project.
In subsequent weeks, pass in your picks as an array of maps. You've gotta pass week and team.
Survivor.project(
week: 2,
picks: [
%{week: 1, team: "LAR"}
],
threshold: 0.68
)
Benchmarking in 2022 start-of-season on an M1 Mac
| Threshold | Time to compute |
|---|---|
| .68 | 25.197168 seconds |
| .675 | 67.476598 seconds |
| .66 | 179.572148 seconds |
| .65 | 822.733092 seconds |
| .64 | 4252.973664 seconds |
...all resulting in the same picks on 2022-09-07.